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6. Analysis of the Age and Gender Structure of the Population


Having determined age/gender population structure, each age and gender group needs to be broken down into subgroups (social cohorts). We analyzed the available statistics, including the relevant official State Statistical Committee statistics (form 94-SOBES, 1995 – 2002), the findings of the National Survey of the Well-being of Households and Participation in Social Programs, State Statistical Committee 2001, and the findings of the medical and sociological survey of the disabled in the City of Moscow conducted by IAIAC in 1999 – 2000. The information was processed with the help of the Statistical Analysis System (SAS), license # 89917.

Under the Russian pension law, three types of labor pensions are paid:

  • old-age and length of service;
  • survivor pension; and
  • disability pension,

as well as social pensions.

Old-age and length of service pensioners currently constitute 77.0% of the total number of pensioners, followed by disability pensioners (11.6%), loss-of-breadwinner pensioners (6.5%), and recipients of social pensions (4.2%). The other pensioner cohorts account for less than 1% and will not be examined. In the past decades, the shares of these pensioner categories were stable enough. The absence of pronounced trends, even in Russia’s recent complicated social and economic situation, makes one expect these indicators to remain stable in the future.

1. Preface 

2. The Current Pension Law: A Brief Characteristic 

3. The Basic Algorithms of the Model 

4. RF Pension System Model 

5. Age/Gender Population Structure: A Forecast 

6. Analysis of the Age and Gender Structure of the Population 

6.1.Old-age pensioners and length of service 

6.2.Disability pensioners 

6.3.Non-pensioners 

6.4.The economically employed 

7. The Modeling Program 

8. The Demographic Forecast 

9. Macroeconomics and Investment Profitability 

10. The PAYGO Element of the Pension System 

11. The Funded Element of the Pension System 

12. Modeling the Outcomes in Brief 

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